2020 Election Night Hub
This page contains live results for Pennsylvania. My goal is not to predict the winner of Pennsylvania. In fact, it’s the opposite. My goal is to understand where the tallied votes are from, where the untallied votes are from, and encourage caution in making assumptions on incomplete data. That being said…
[TEST MODE: These results are currently fake.]
*: It’s impossible in the released data to tell how many of the returned mail-ins are included in the totals. For a conservative guess, I assume none.
In-Person Precincts Reporting: 9,127 / 9,128
Votes Tallied: 2,708,293
Biden: 1,249,440 (46.1%)
Trump: 1,043,311 (38.5%)
Returned Mail-Ins: 233,540
% Dem: 183,070 (78.4%)
% Rep: 32,189 (13.8%)
% Other: 18,281 (7.8%)
Not yet returned Mail-Ins: 777,515
% Dem: 453,385 (58.3%)
% Rep: 226,745 (29.2%)
% Other: 97,385 (12.5%)
Scenarios
If uncounted mail-ins vote by party, and 20% of the outstanding mail-ins are returned.
Biden: 1,542,066 (49.8%)
Trump: 1,139,728 (36.8%)If uncounted mail-ins vote by party, and no more outstanding mail-ins are returned.
Biden: 1,441,650 (49%)
Trump: 1,084,640 (36.9%)If uncounted mail-ins vote like in-person adjusted for party[1], and 20% of the outstanding mail-ins are returned.
Biden: 1,510,955 (51.4%)
Trump: 1,095,341 (37.2%)If uncounted mail-ins vote like in-person adjusted for party[1], and no more outstanding mail-ins are returned.
Biden: 1,414,221 (48.1%)
Trump: 1,066,236 (36.2%)
[1] - I regress in-person county-level results on party registration. Then apportion mail-ins using those results. This includes a host of assumptions that may or may not be right.
Data Sources
Live Results from electionreturns.pa.gov.
Mail-In Data from data.pa.gov.